Art Market Predictions 2024

The bustling art season kicked of last weekend. Close to 500 galleries participated in 4 major fairs in the New York city while Frieze kicks off in Seoul. [1] Referencing the Mid-Year Intelligence Report from Artnet and the results from this weekend, here are some predictions for the global art market for the season, from now until Art Basel Miami in December.

$825,000 Robert Motherwell painting sold at Kasmin Gallery led The Armory Show 2024 opening day sales.   PhotoCourtesy: Kasmin Gallery.

The sales numbers for the first half of 2024 have been strikingly low, with global spending on fine art at auction totalling $5.05 billion, down 29.5% from the same period in 2023. The top three auction houses—Sotheby’s, Christie’s, and Philips—averaged a 29% decline in total sales, and there was a notable 18% drop in purchases by ultra-high-net-worth individuals, with a significant decrease in the number of lots sold for $10 million or more.

The art market is struggling due to several factors, including declining resale values, high interest rates, and uncertainty from the U.S. presidential election, along with the Israel-Gaza and Russia-Ukraine political tensions, which have reduced the number of buyers. Speculators who entered the market during the pandemic are now selling their art at significant losses. Galleries have faced tough sales for the past two years, with primary prices seen as too high, and many, including major players, have closed or are on the brink of shutting down due to ongoing financial pressures. [2]

However, initial results from both New York and Seoul provides a sense of positivity. This was the first year the Armory Fair is thriving after it was bought by London Frieze Art Fair in 2023. The decision by the parent company to run Frieze Seoul on the same weekend as the Armory Fair in New York suggests that they were aiming at different markets, with the New York fairs aiming for at works selling for mostly under the $50,000 price range and Frieze Seoul to be the centre for more expensive artworks. Indeed, many high net-worth collectors opted to attend Seoul last weekend and are now preparing for the fairs in Singapore this coming weekend.

This is the first year The Armory Show is taking place under the ownership of London’s Frieze Art Fair, following its acquisition in 2023.  Photo Courtesy: Yuyang Chen

On VIP day of NYC Frieze, dealers reported optimistic early sales, with strong participation from American collectors. Works that were sold on the day includes works by Yayoi Kusama, Isaac Julien, and Sandra Blow. [3] Speaking with galleries at the end of the weekend, galleries generally proved content about their presence in New York City. Many galleries from abroad, who faces higher costs of attending the fairs in New York, generally said that they were able to leave with profits.

In Frieze Seoul, major galleries reported equally significant sales, including Hauser & Wirth, which sold Nicolas Party’s Portrait with Curtains for $2.5 million and two Louise Bourgeois works for seven-figure sums. PKM Gallery sold a Yoo Youngkuk painting for $1.5 million, and Sprüth Magers placed George Condo’s Self Portrait for $1.95 million. Other significant sales includes works sold by Pace (Lee Ufan), Thaddaeus Ropac (Georg Baselitz), Gagosian, Kukje Gallery, and White Cube (Sabine Moritz, Takashi Murakami, Antony Gormley). [4]

Installation view of Pace Gallery’s booth at Frieze Seoul, 2024. Photo Courtesy: Pace Gallery.

Would the strong results across translate into a positive rate for the future? It is too early to call. Although global inflation is expected to ease this year, interest rates have been slow to decrease, with many central banks delaying further adjustments until later in the year. Political uncertainty is also impacting economic confidence, as 50 countries, including the U.S., U.K., France, and India, are holding elections this year, adding to the instability. If the geo-political world can increase confidence in collectors, the art world is likely to bounce back in the evening sales in November and wrapping up in Art Basel Miami, though the numbers are still very unlikely to suppress earlier years. Collectors might have to wait until 2026 and beyond for another promising market.

Footnotes

 [1] The Armoury fair features 235 galleries, Art on Paper has 100, Independent includes 88 with

38 new galleries, and Volta art fair showcases 50 galleries.

[2] News, Artnet. “Introducing the Intelligence Report: Mid-Year Review 2024.” Artnet News, September 6, 2024. https://news.artnet.com/market/introducing-the-intelligence-report-mid- year-review-2024-2531414.

[3] Carollo, Elisa. “Highlights and Early Sales from the Armory Show 2024.” Observer, September 6, 2024. https://observer.com/2024/09/highlights-early-sales-the-armory-show-2024/.

[4] Westall, Mark. “Frieze Seoul 2024 Concludes with Strong Sales.” FAD Magazine, September 8, 2024. https://fadmagazine.com/2024/09/08/frieze-seoul-2024-concludes-with-strong-sales/.

Hector Chan

Contributing Writer, MADE IN BED