London Marquee Evening Auctions Meet Market Expectations
The first week of March saw several London evening sales across the major auction houses: Sotheby’s, Christie’s, and Phillips. With a few high achievers, it appears there is rising confidence, but the market continues its downward trend with lower sales totals than previous years. This is due to ongoing geo-political uncertainty with wars in Ukraine and Gaza, as well as Donald Trump’s re-election and implementation of higher tariffs. The market seems to be adapting to this by offering fewer lots and lowering expectations.
Marina Yujie Liu, Sotheby’s Modern and Contemporary Day Auction, 2025. Photo Courtesy: the artist.
According to the ArtTactic Auction Analysis the week’s sales total was £161.9 million, a 34.2% decrease from March 2024’s £257.1 million (which itself was a 14.9% decrease from the year before).[1] The market in terms of total sales value continues its downward trend. The number of lots selling above their middle estimate was also in decline at 25.9% against last year’s 33.8%. However, the sell-through rate has seen an improvement from last year, with 92.1% of lots selling compared to 88.5% in 2024.
ArtTactic’s snapshot states that that total sales value for Sotheby’s Modern and Contemporary Evening Auction was £50.64 million across 34 lots, with a sell-through rate of 89.5% and less than half the works selling above their middle estimate at 23.7%.[2] This is once again a decrease from last March’s sale total of £82.205 million with 38.3% of works selling above the middle estimate.[3] The number of lots has also decreased from 169[4] to 139.[5] This may be due to consigners wanting to hold onto their works for better days but it also reduces the likelihood of works being pulled from auction and scarcity may create demand.
“One advantage of the smaller-sized auctions is that there is less that can go wrong.”
While the market remains in decline regarding price confidence and sales totals, the Sotheby’s Modern and Contemporary Evening Sale still yielded some impressive results. The crown jewel of this auction was Yoshitomo Nara’s Cosmic Eyes (in the Milky Lake) which was estimated at £6-8 million and sold for £9.21 million. The work sold after an intense battle between bidders, who drove the price up to soar £1 million over its high estimate. The catalogue note for this work describes it as signifying a “crucial milestone in Nara’s artistic journey.”[7] The work is one of only four that introduced the glittering cosmic eye motif, making it rare and highly desirable. The sale of this work comes as a precursor to Nara’s upcoming retrospective at the Hayward Gallery, set to take place from June to August of this year. This will be the largest retrospective of his works in Europe.[8]
Yoshitomo Nara, Cosmic Eyes (in the Milky Lake), 2005. Acrylic and glitter on canvas. Photo courtesy: Mairi Alice Dun.
Another work exceeding expectations was Lisa Brice’s After Embah which was estimated between £1 - £1.5 million and sold for an impressive £5.41 million (incl. fees). Another version of this work sold for £2.48 million in 2021,[9] so in the past four years the value of this composition has doubled. It comes as no surprise that the work performed so well as it is undeniably captivating in its use of colour and employment of culturally relevant symbols, such as the central silhouette of Nicki Minaj.
Lisa Brice, After Embah, 2018. Synthetic tempera, gesso, and ink on canvas. Photo courtesy: Sotheby’s.
“People are still willing to buy great works of art.”
An unexpected outcome was that of Banksy’s Crude Oil (Vettriano). It was estimated at £3-5 million and sold at just above its middle estimate at £4.26 million. The work seemed to contain all the ingredients for success: a celebrity owner in Blink-182’s Mark Hoppus; its rarity; and the death of Vettriano the week before the sale which would have boosted its media presence. While the painting still sold well within its estimates, it came as a surprise to see that it did not enjoy the same success or spark the intense bidding battle that Nara’s work did. This may be due to residual trust issues after Banksy’s infamous shredding of Girl with Balloon in 2018. People may have shied away from buying the work without knowing if the artist had any more tricks up his sleeve.
Banksy, Crude Oil (Vettriano), 2005. Oil on canvas. Photo courtesy: Isobella Richings.
Despite only 23.7% of works selling above the middle estimate, there is something optimistic about the fact that the two highest selling lots were by a POC and a woman, which may hint at greater diversity in collections going forward.
Christie’s 20th/21st Century Evening Sale outperformed Sotheby’s Modern and Contemporary with sales totalling £66.85 million across 44 lots. This auction had a higher sell-through rate of 93.6% but the number of lots selling above middle estimate was 27.7%, only a 4% increase from that of Sotheby’s.[10] Christie’s sales were also in decline from last year which saw a sales total of £114.53 million.[11] However, this year was an improvement on the sell-through rate which was at 93.6% in comparison with last year’s 87.5%, likely due to reduced lot numbers. There was also a slightly greater price confidence with 27.7% of lots selling above the middle estimate whereas last year saw 23.8% doing so.[12]
The highest selling lot was Francis Bacon’s Portrait of a Man with Glasses III. Much like Banksy’s Crude Oil (Vettriano) this lot also seemed to fizzle out. Unlike Banksy’s work, the painting failed to meet its low estimate of £6 million, selling for £5.5 million, the highest price of the night.[13]
Francis Bacon, Portrait of a Man with Glasses III, 1963. Oil and silver sand on canvas. Photo courtesy: Alice Ji-Won Kim.
‘The Art of the Surreal’ evening sale took place on the same day. The total of the 24 lots sold added up to £39.42 million, with a 96% sell through rate. 44% of works sold above middle estimate, outperforming the aforementioned auctions. Once again this was in decline from last year’s £49.5 million sales total. 24 lots were offered compared to last year’s 22 but there was still an increase in the sell through rate which was 96% compared to last year’s 88%. There was no change in the price confidence with both year’s sales at 44%.
It comes as no surprise that the highest selling lot for this particular sale was Rene Magritte’s La Reconnaissance Infinie. The work was estimated between £6-9 million and brushed the high bound to sell for £8.7 million, according to ArtTactic’s snapshot of the evening. This comes on the heels of the success of Magritte’s L’Empire des Lumières which sold at Christie’s New York last November for a whopping $121.2 million making it the highest selling painting of 2024. This demonstrates that despite uncertainties there is a strong desire for Surrealism in the market and it remains a reliable area for sale. This is further supported by the fact that the estimated sales total was £31.7 million, but it exceeded that to rake in £39.4 million.
Rene Magritte, installation view, La Reconnaissance Infinie, 1933. Oil on canvas. Photo courtesy: Alice Ji-Won Kim.
Surprisingly, Phillips is the only auction house to have increased sales from 2024, constituting 7.2% of market shares this year. Phillips’ increase came at the detriment of Sotheby’s whose share has dropped to their lowest in the past 10 years, at 29.9%.[14] Phillips offers works at a lower price point, averaging around £470,000 whereas Sotheby’s and Christie’s averages were over £1 million. This translates well in todays climate as people are still willing to buy art at lower prices.
Phillips’ 2025 20th/21st Century Evening Sale totalled £12.22 million, an improvement on 2024’s £10.9 million.[15] There was a marginal increase in the sell-through rate with 2025 at 89.7% compared to 2024’s 88.5%. There was also an increase in lots sold which included 26 this year. However, there was a dramatic decrease in price confidence. In the 2024 sale 34.6% of works sold above their middle estimate, however, the 2025 sale saw only 10.3% of works doing so.[16] Despite fewer works selling above the middle estimate, the sale was still a success with a higher sales total and allowing Phillips to expand its market share. The average price remained similar across both years’ sales sitting around £470,000 in 2025 and £474,000 in 2024. The higher sales total may just be due to the increased number of lots and not any newfound optimism in the market.
Overall, it does not come as a surprise that the art market remains in decline due to ongoing political tensions and uncertainties. However, there is still a demand for high quality works of art. As Melanie Gerlis states, the recipe for art auction success is surrealism, especially on the heels of Magritte’s tremendous success last year. There may also be an increasing desire for artworks that appeal to social media. This was shown by Yoshitomo Nara and Lisa Brice’s success at Sotheby’s. The works are undeniably cool, and it is difficult to resist instagramming them. While it may be a way of bolstering confidence, Tom Eddison makes a valid point that people do indeed still want to buy great works of art. It will just take a little more time to catch on completely.
Footnotes
[1] ArtTActic Auction Analysis: London Marquee Evening Auctions – March 2024, p3
[2] ArtTactic Auction Snapshot: Sotheby’s Modern & Contemporary Evening Sale, 4/03/2025
[3] ArtTactic Snapshot Overview: Impressionist, Modern, Post-War & Contemporary Art Marquee Sales, London, March 2024, p4-6.
[4] ArtTactic Auction Analysis, 2024, p3
[5] ArtTactic Auction Analysis, 2025, p3
[6] Melanie Gerlis, The recipe for art auction success? Surrealism — and Instagram-friendly painting, Financial Times, 7th March 2025
[7] Sotheby’s Modern and Contemporary Evening Auction, Yoshitomo Nara, Cosmic Eyes (in the Milky Lake), Catalogue Note
[8] Southbank Centre, What’s On, Yoshitomo Nara
[9] Scott Reyburn, London contemporary art auctions kick off with £5.4m record for Lisa Brice, despite geopolitical chaos, The Art Newspaper, 5th March 2025
[10] ArtTactic Auction Analysis: Christie’s 20th/21st Century Evening Sales 2025, p1
[11] ArtTactic Snapshot Overview: Impressionist, Modern, Post-War & Contemporary Art Marquee Sales, London, March 2024, p10
[12] ArtTactic Snapshot Overview, 2024, p10
[13] ArtTactic Auction Analysis: Christie’s 20th/21st Century Evening Sales 2025, p3
[14] ArtTactic, Auction Analysis: Marquee Evening Sales, London, March 2025, p4
[15] ArtTactic Snapshot Overview 2024, p8
[16] ArtTactic Snapshot Phillips Modern & Contemporary Art Evening Sale London, 6th March 2025, p1
Edwina Keary
Art Markets Co-Editor, MADE IN BED
