Art Market Predictions 2025
While the art market has been in decline in recent years, 2025 bears a cautiously positive outlook towards success. Areas with potential to grow include the representation of women artists in the market; continued global shifts towards the Middle East and Asia; and continuing expansion into the luxury sector. Uncertainty surrounds the change in US government and changes in auction house’s pricing.
Rene Magritte, Empire of Light, 1950. Photo Courtesy: renemagritte.org
A Big Year for Women?
Interest in female artists is likely to be a strong point in the market. 2025 has a number of female-focused exhibitions lined up, from the MoMA’s Ruth Asawa retrospective in October, and the Tate Modern’s Emily Kame Kngwarreye exhibition. These are only to name a couple but the number of female-focused exhibitions in the museums could spell out good fortune for representation of women artists in the market as their works are given increasing cultural cache.
According to ArtTactic women artists only accounted for 41 lots sold in 2024 which was a decrease from 56 in 2023. The share of total lots sold for women artists was also down from previous years, at 19%, with a total sales value of 9.7%. However, a number of women artists exceeded their estimates, performing very well; Leonora Carrington, Louise Bourgeois, Sarah Sze, Firelei Báez and Hilary Pecis among them. The top prices for women artists were as follows: Joan Mitchell ($14.5 million), Leonora Carrington ($9.8 million), Yayoi Kusama ($5.6 million), Cecily Brown ($4.9m).”[1] This demonstrates a clear potential for success among women artists and hopefully increasing museum representation will push them toward the market and into more collections.
In terms of the current presence of women artists in HNWI collections, the 2024 Art Basel Report states that the share of works by female artists rose to 44%, its highest level since 2018 (33%). HNWI who had spent over $10 million on their collections had devoted a larger share of spending to female artists compared to male artists, at 52%. While HNWI collections were still dominated by male artists across all regions, the UK saw near equality with 49% of works in collections by women.[2]
Guerilla Girls, Only 4 Commercial Galleries in NY Show Black Women, 1986. Photo Courtesy: the Artist and Hannah Traore Gallery
The Guerilla Girls are also set to have a their first commercial show in New York at Hannah Traore Gallery. Traore says she originally did not reach out to the artist collective in the hopes of turning a profit, but rather to bring their presence back to New York and introduce them to a new generation. “Our work is not the type of thing that a gallery will make money on, since our posters sell for like $30 or $40 and that’s not going to make a gallery survive,” says Käthe Kollwitz (Guerilla Girls founding member). However, Traore will offer a large portfolio-sized group of works priced between $35,000 and $40,000, as well as a print-sized group offered for under $5,000, as well as merchandise.[3] This inflation of the prices that the Guerilla Girls expected indicates the value of their works from a cultural and financial standpoint.
Their exhibition demonstrates not just a desire to provide a greater platform for women artists in the market in terms of diversity, but to provide a platform for highly politicised women artists who are not afraid to make overt and overdue critiques of commercial representation, and lack thereof.
Global Shifts
Auction houses and dealers may continue to expand their horizons, many of which point to the Middle East. Both Sotheby’s and Christie’s have opened in Saudi Arabia, with Sotheby’s holding its inaugural auction at its new location in Riyadh this February.[4] The growing wealth in the region and the presence of major auction houses may engage and draw out more collectors. This region as an engine for wealth growth may also see with it a growing demand for blue-chip galleries and top-tier artists, boosting the higher end of the market.
Asia is also a region with significant growth potential. Last year’s UBS Art Basel Report found that Singapore had the highest number of new collectors compared to other regions, with 42% collecting within the past 6 years. 97% of respondents reported optimism for the future, with 52% of collectors planning to purchase more art. Singapore’s global share of art also grew from 1% in 2019 to 5% in 2023, demonstrating its growth potential that we may see continue to climb over the coming year. [5]
We can also see rising markets across Africa, specifically in Cape Town, Lagos, and Morocco. There has been a clear growth of galleries across Africa which can be linked back to Covid due to the opportunities it created for emerging galleries who could move online and circumvent expensive overheads associated with brick-and-mortar locations. The online opportunities also meant that galleries could operate in a local and an international space, boosting their visibility in the wider art world. The region with the largest growth in the number of galleries in the past ten years is Cape Town, which we may see continue to expand in 2025. [6]
Number of New Commercial Galleries from 2014 to 2024 Photo Courtesy: Latitudes Blog
Growth into New Sectors
Continued expansion with the luxury sector has potential in 2025. The art market has seen 10% growth in the past twenty years, whereas the personal luxury sector has tripled in the same time.[7] The two sectors go hand-in-hand with strong focuses on aesthetics and brand/artist identity and they have been steadily integrating through artist and brand collaborations.
This increasing influence and integration of the two worlds is explored by Jenn Ellis, Sherry Dobin, Matthew McLean, Martha Mosse for ArtLogic, stating that “the intersection of art and luxury is reshaping exhibitions, expanding audience reach for artists and galleries.”[8] Mclean explores the idea that luxury brands are branching out towards more cultural endeavours beyond commercial interests to adopt greater cultural prestige, while artists gain access to huge marketing benefits.[9]
“As the art world continues to evolve, the intersection of art, luxury, and culture will expand, offering new opportunities for artists to express their vision and for brands to engage with audiences in deeper, more meaningful ways.”
Overall, there is potential for these two markets to continue to grow together, with the luxury sector benefiting from the cultural validation of artistic collaboration; and the art world profiting off the massive growth potential that the luxury world has demonstrated. The collaborations between the two will provide ample opportunities for artists to expand and grow their careers in new sectors.
Softer Pricing for Auction Houses
Art Basel Miami saw a potential for softer pricing as a means of enticing new and younger collectors. While a number of seven-figure-sales were realized, there was a decline from the year before. However, the fair offered a wide range of artworks and prices, perhaps to encourage newer or younger collectors in the market for works priced at the mid-to-low end of the market, as this is an area that has suffered less damage than the top-end, maintaining success.
Perhaps 2025 will see auction houses create slightly lower bounds in terms of estimates to increase the likelihood of works selling within these bounds, as opposed to falling short. The more works that sell within these estimates may encourage come optimism among buyers regarding the market’s performance, and bolster it slightly.
After Sydney Prior Hall, A Great Picture Sale at Christie's, from "The Graphic," 1887. Wood engraving. Photo Courtesy: Pixabay.
Changing US Policies
With the US occupying the largest market share, the changing of the guard and Donald Trump’s re-election as president could spell out some uncertainty for the arts.
Alex Glauber (art advisor and president of the Association of Professional Art Advisors), voices his concern over the unpredictability of Trump’s presidency on the art market. He states that “Republican administrations typically have a binary effect on the art world”. While their policies tend to sideline the arts and cultural sector, their economic policies prioritise the interests of the wealthy who are the “lifeblood of the market”. [10] These policies may lead to greater activity among collectors, however, Trump’s unpredictable nature begs some uncertainty regarding tariffs, interest rates, and taxes, which may affect collector spending habits.
The effects his presidency will have on galleries and artists also remains dubious. Increasing tariffs can lead to high inflation, creating problems for gallery operations. Jasmin Tsou emphasises that one “can’t price artworks in relation to overhead costs, but when inflation and costs rise higher than you can increase the value of the works, the business side of things becomes incredibly expensive”.[11] Galleries will need to be creative in the way they adapt to these changes because overpricing artworks beyond their value, in order to cover overheads, may deter collectors looking to buy more art amid favourable tax policies.
Footnotes
[1] ArtTactic, Auction Analysis: New York Marquee Evening Auctions, November 2024, p4
[2] The UBS Report, 2024, p15
[3] Gabriella Angeleti, ‘The market is still the domain of famous male artists’: Guerrilla Girls open their first commercial gallery show in New York, The Art Newspaper, 17th January 2025
[4] Fabrizio Signorelli, “More Art Market Trends To Watch In 2025”, Art Insider, 2025
[5] The UBS Art Basel Report, 2024,pp1-10
[6] Guillaume Cerutti, Art Market: key priorities for 2025 (and beyond), The Art Newspaper France, 2024
[7] Mary Corrigall, “As the global art market flounders, bananas and African art market soars”, Latitudes, 2024
[8] Jenn Ellis, Sherry Dobin, Matthew McLean, Martha Mosse, ArtLogic, Art Meets Luxury: The Power of Collaboration, 11th December 2024
[9] ArtNews, Art World Insiders Make Their New Year’s Predictions for 2025, January 2025
[10] ArtNews, Art World Insiders Make Their New Year’s Predictions for 2025, January 2025
[11] Tim Schneider, Katey Acquaro, Nick Olney, Jasmin Tsou, The Future of the Art Market: Tackling Key Challenges in 2025, ArtLogic Blog, 11th December 2024
Edwina Keary
Art Markets Co-Editor, MADE IN BED
